July 2017 – Mid year Market review – Orange County Housing Forecast
Orange County Housing Market Summary:
The active listing inventory increased by just 47 homes, or 1%, in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 5,983, knocking on the door of the 6,000 home level. Last year, there were 7,329 homes on the market, 1,346 more than today.
There are 38% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 18%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 2% in the past couple of weeks, dropping by 55 pending sales and now totals 2,830. The average pending price is $829,260.
The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.6 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 39 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 63% of demand.
For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 57 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is at 93 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 120 to 123 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time increased from 155 to 176 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 266 to 269 days.
The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 11% of demand.
The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 62 days to 63 in the past couple of weeks, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise throughout the Summer Market.
Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 1.8% of demand. There are only 36 foreclosures and 51 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 87 total distressed homes on the active market, 11 more than two weeks ago. Last year there were 128 total distressed sales, 47% more than today.
There were 3,229 closed sales in June, a 3% increase over May 2017 and a 3% increase over June 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.99% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.87%. That means that 98% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.
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